I love me a good conspiracy theory. NASA faked the moon landing, there was more than one shooter in the area when JFK was assassinated, 9/11 was an inside job, and my personal favorite: the current president is a Kenyan Muslim socialist who has been working with Bill Ayers since birth to fudge his medical records and fool hardworking lawmen, like Sheriff Joe Arpaio, to become president and instill a Nazi Communist Caliphate in the good ol’ U.S. of A.—all ideas with kernels of truth to them (both NASA and the moon exist, JFK was shot, we were attacked on 9/11 and Obama is in fact Black), but which quickly leap into the realm of overactive imagination. These are the things that give me a steady supply of laughs during the day.
Imagine how pleasantly surprised I was last Friday, when, upon hearing the monthly unemployment estimate, a few people in the GOP, including former General Electric CEO Jack Welch and Florida representative Allen West, created a brand new conspiracy theory out of thin air!
Here’s the context: every month, on the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases an Employment Situation report that includes unemployment numbers, how many people in specific demographics have jobs, percentage-wise, and so on. One number sort of sets the stage for how the economy is going to perform in the upcoming month: the total unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted.
September’s unemployment rate was 7.8 percent, a full three-tenths of a percentage point down from last month (so drastic, I know), but nonetheless the lowest unemployment rate since January 2009 and a convenient drop, especially so close to election day. Here’s where the conspiracy theory starts.
On Friday afternoon, Welch tweeted, “Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can’t debate so change numbers,” to which Rep. West added, “In regards to today’s Jobs report—I agree with former GE CEO Jack Welch, Chicago style politics is at work here…”
Interesting indeed.
Nevermind the fact that a three-tenths drop in unemployment represented only about 460,000 people, slightly more than the population of Tulsa—the culture of silence inside the BLS stands in the face of this theory.
Back in August, NPR show Planet Money did an explainer episode over exactly how the Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles its information and how it conducts itself in the week leading up to the monthly Employment Situation announcement. In a word: lockdown.
Co-workers aren’t allowed in each other’s offices. Janitors aren’t allowed to empty wastebaskets. Meetings are held with doors shut tight and paper on the windows. A true-blue conspiracy theorist would say that’s because they’re cooking the numbers and don’t want anyone to see them do it, but this method has been in place for many years, and for 44 months the unemployment rate was pretty abysmal. The system the BLS has in place is designed specifically to stop any leaks and, perhaps more importantly, to prevent and politically motivated numbers-cooking.
Consider this, as well: the next Employment Situation is scheduled to be released at 8:30 p.m., Eastern Standard Time, on Friday, November 2. That’s the Friday right before the election. If the Obama administration was really trying to cook the books on the jobs numbers, November 2 would be the day to do it.
Endnote: in the first presidential debate, GOP candidate Mitt Romney’s least-popular line was the one about how he’d cut funding to public media, even though he loves Big Bird. People have criticized him for the attack. I happen to think he’s right, but not for the reasons you—or he—would think. Check back next week to read why.
And as always, shoot me an email with your questions comments and criticisms to kaile at noescapevg dot com.